Prior dist. | A | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | ||||
Loss Table | 雨天 | 陰天 | 晴天 | Prior-Expect | Solution | |||
表演 | 15000 | 5000 | -10000 | -3000 | 表演 | |||
取消 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | 1000 | ||||
B | 雨天 | 陰天 | 晴天 | |||||
預測雨天 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |||||
預測陰天 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |||||
預測晴天 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | |||||
sum | ||||||||
邊際 | A*B | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.19 | C | ||
0.02 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.32 | |||||
0.01 | 0.06 | 0.42 | 0.49 | |||||
Post-Expect | Solution | |||||||
Posterior | 預測雨天 | 0.368421 | 0.315789 | 0.315789 | 3947.36842 | |||
A*B/C | 1000 | 取消 | ||||||
預測陰天 | 0.0625 | 0.5625 | 0.375 | 0.00 | 表演 | |||
1000.00 | ||||||||
預測晴天 | 0.020408 | 0.122449 | 0.857143 | -7653.0612 | 表演 | |||
1000 | ||||||||